As I've watched parts of debates there have been some thoughts that I'd like to share. These are my "Presidential Predictions" for the 2008 election from both parties.
Prediction #1:
Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination. He is the only one who can beat any of the Republicans. Hilary Clinton only has a chance against the "lesser" Republican candidates. John Edwards would never beat any of the top 3-4 Republican candidates. Obama is the strongest choice. Hilary chose the wrong year to run. Obama has both the charisma and vision that she lacks.
Is it just me or does the press love Democrats? I can't help but notice that they (the press) are compassionate and optimistic when they speak with them. It seems to me that when members of the press are interviewing or questioning Republicans in debates that they are much more hard on them- asking tougher questions, are more pointed, etc. Democrats are babied when they are interviewed- almost as if they were lost children found in Wal-Mart waiting for their mom or dad to come and get them. Want a lollipop, Honey?
Prediction #2:
Mitt Romney will barely win the Republican nomination. We haven't heard the end of, "but he's a Mormon!" just yet. I think that is pretty interesting that some people freak out about that and also think that it gives us a little perspective on the religious prejudice that lingers in some. The press is partially responsible for continuing to bring up religion. Mitt is the only candidate in both parties that really has a complete plan- about which he can speak in detail. Sometimes Mitt is too rigid and focuses too much on issues and not people. A few other candidates are lopsided and running on only one issue. Mitt will win just as many states as the other front-running candidates and while he is at risk on coming in second place in many states, with McCain, Guiliani, and Huckabee taking turns being first by a few percentage points, he'll win the most delegates over time for the national convention. I heard that he has the most delegates already. I just read my e-mail after typing that last part and found out that Romney has earned more votes than any other candidate so far. The only way that the Republican party can beat Obama if he is the Democratic nominee is with Romney. I also don't think that McCain, Huckabee, or Giuliani would do very well against Hilary Clinton and think that the big-wigs in the Republican party already know that- as well as the press.
I look forward to learning more about the candidates as they campaign and debate. More details at Real Clear Politics. You'll also find on that web site the delegate count.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Presidential Predictions
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2 comments:
Loren, I had no idea that you had a blog until I saw it on Char's. Cool. What do you say about all the mis-speaks Romney has done. Admittedly, they aren't huge things but put together it seems to point to a guy who is so eager that he inflates the truth at times ("I've been a hunter all my life" or "I got that bill passed" or whatever). Do you think the American people can overlook that?
No- we should never overlook Romney's blunders. Don't forget Romney telling us that he "saw" his father march with Martin Luther King. I think he is making it sound like he was there, but he should have said, "My father marched with Martin Luther King." He experienced it as a family member, but not in person. I am glad the press is making him own up to every word he says. He is trying to claim every good thing done by any person he ever knew existed.
Romney is a politician- through and through- and that is his greatest weakness. He is almost too much into himself at times. Politics and government are only similar to an extent and one has to be careful about making promises regarding change, etc. Although I think a president can do a lot, executive power is different in business government. One can't just streamline production, market more heavily, lay off employees, or train staff to improve things. It is like comparing a dairy farm to controlling the weather.
I think it is funny when we attribute a good or bad economy on a president's influence. It's even funnier to see a president take credit for a growing economy. They can control only one of hundreds of factors.
Romney is so cocky that if he wins the presidency he'll be served some major humble pie in his first 2-3 years of being president. I look forward to it. But as I look at it- I'd rather have Mitt Romney blundering in Washington than Hilary. And if Mitt did a good job in the first 4 years the public would re-elect him. I am impressed with the job that John Huntsman has done in Utah with putting the economy first. A strong economy has helped him to finance everything else.
I like Obama's optimism and vision- though I wish it had more substance and experience to back it up.
McCain's "words that never should have been said" over the years are much worse- "Bomb-bomb-bomb, bomb-bomb- Iran," (and then laughing about it), etc. Is scary. I think he lacks the ability to... to... lead a country. He is too one-sided and lacks in diplomacy and he is flippant at times. I think he does have some ideas on campaign reform, etc. that DO need to happen in the U.S.
Huckabee is too compassionate. He is too soft to be a president. He is the Republican version of Jimmy Carter. I like Jimmy Carter (great autobiography by the way) and I like Huckabee too. Not too impressed with his little religion jabs at Romney.
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